Be Careful for What You Wish For

Well, Rick Santorum threw in the towel today in the Republican Presidential Primary.  I guess it's "game over."  It's what the Republican establishment has wanted. It is what CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, and even FoxNews seemed to be asking for. Be careful for what you wish for.

Let me summarize why for the last month we have had Republicans, Democrat leaders and strategists, and major media urge Santorum to leave the race.

• Governor Mitt Romney had secured an overwhelming number of delegates for the nomination.
• We (Republicans) must pick our nominee as soon as possible so the nominee can get to the important task of campaigning against President Obama.
• We (Republicans) must pick our nominee as soon as possible so the nominee can get to the important task of raising funds to compete against President Obama.
• We (Republicans) must end the negative attacks of the presidential primary contenders or the winner will end up too bloodied and bruised to carry on the fight in the general election.
• Santorum may act as a spoiler and prevent Romney from gaining enough delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot. This will lead to an ugly spectacle on national television as the Republicans fumble around choosing the nominee at (gasp) the convention.
• Santorum has alienated women due to his rhetoric on social issues and he therefore does not have broad enough support to be a credible presidential nominee.
• Romney is the only Republic contender that has broad support among many segments of the electorate.
• Santorum lacks the organization to pull off a nationwide campaign.  Romney has experience at this and has flexed his organization in every state contest.
• Democrat party leaders and PACs want Republicans to settle on a candidate so they can begin their focused campaign (i.e, attack).
• Obama campaign officials must run a negative campaign (they have no positive record to run on) and need to have a target to spend the dollars efficiently.
• The news media needs a compelling story.  Santorum dragging out the race was not compelling.  They squeezed as much as they could out of Santorum and the contraceptive flap.  Rich, out-of-touch, Romney versus President Obama starts to be compelling.
  

The list of reasons, though not exhaustive, is impressive.  However, to me these reasons are not sufficient.  So here were my arguments for dragging it out...

Romney had a huge lead in delegates, but it was not mathematically insurmountable - particularly given the very generous and questionable count attributed to Romney.  More importantly, had Santorum managed to stay competitive (which required volunteers and money to stay with him) he may have prevented Romney from securing enough delegates before the convention.

Oh, my!  A convention where the nominee is not crowned before the opening gavel?  Yes.  This would not be the end of the world.  It may have even done the party good.  There could have been an actual convention where delegates debated the platform and the advantages of one candidate over another.  The American people could have seen a thorough and thoughtful consideration of Republican principles and candidates.  If Romney had secured the rest of the needed delegates in this process then so be it.  The process could have been a catalyst. Instead of hurting the party it could have provided momentum for the candidate - even Romney.

Throughout the early primary process and even through the latest voting there was considerable "anti-Romney" sentiment and votes.  This is why for awhile we had a new leader in the polls every couple of weeks.  There was the Michelle Bachman bubble; the Rick Perry bubble; the Herman Cane bubble; the Newt Gingrich bubble; will-someone-else-get-in-the-race panic; and the Santorum surge.  I don't think  this can be interpreted any other way except that Republican voters were not very keen on Romney.  Of all the races that have occurred thus far how many has Romney won over 50%?  A handful.

Even while Romney collected his nearly insurmountable lead in delegates he failed to inspire the Republican majority.  I think the reason to this is obvious.  They don't believe he is a conservative.  He occasionally will spout a few conservative sounding lines, but they are really not convinced.  His record as governor was not very conservative (Romney-care?).

So Republicans are now left with a presidential candidate who perhaps doesn't even have half of them keen on him.  I suspect most Republicans will acquiesce to the choice, but they will not be enthused. Is this enough to beat Obama in the fall?

And for this pregnant question I answer "be careful for what you wish for."